IMF raises UK 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for UK economic growth in 2026 to 1.3%. That puts the projection 0.5 percentage point above its April outlook and 0.3 percentage point above its July update.

The October World Economic Outlook chapter does not identify artificial intelligence investment as the cause of the UK upgrade. The fund discusses AI in its broader global assessment, where it says technology investment is helping offset geopolitical headwinds.

For 2027, the IMF expects UK growth to ease to 1.2%, 0.1 percentage point below its April forecast. It said higher energy prices and long-term interest rates would weigh on consumption and investment.

The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.

In its assessment of the global economy, the IMF describes AI-driven technology momentum as an important offset to geopolitical headwinds. The near-term effect, it says, is coming through exports, investment and capital deepening, while longer-term productivity gains remain uncertain.

That broader technology investment backdrop is uneven, according to the IMF. Economies’ exposure depends on their place in technology supply chains, their capacity for domestic investment and their readiness to adopt new technologies.

The IMF also identifies a reassessment of expected AI profits or productivity gains as a downside risk that could weaken investment and tighten financial conditions.